At the start of last year, Ki Young Ju announced the onset of a bear market, later apologizing for his prediction. Despite a potential decline in the accuracy of historical signals from on-chain data, Ki Young Ju’s insights remain influential due to his expertise in the field. But what are his expectations for the future, and why does he hold these views?
End of the Decline? Understanding the Reasons
When Bitcoin prices enter a bear market, massive drops follow their all-time highs. Ki Young Ju highlights that the dynamics for cryptocurrencies have evolved, suggesting that past bear market patterns are unlikely to repeat. Addressing the situation through a concise Q&A: What does Ki Young Ju consider as the cause of the decline? There is a lack of new capital inflow. Have bear markets begun? Without capital inflow, bull markets are off the table. Has Bitcoin hit bottom? Selling pressure continues, potentially leading to a prolonged consolidation phase with a different market structure.
No 70% Drop Expected in Crypto
Ki Young Ju, founder of one of the largest on-chain analytics platforms, CryptoQuant, shared a pertinent chart, drawing attention to strategic considerations.
“Bitcoin is on a decline amid ongoing selling pressure and a halt in new capital inflow. The realized market cap remains unchanged, indicating no new capital. This environment, marked by a market cap drop, isn’t indicative of a bull market. Early investors, benefiting from substantial unrealized gains through ETFs and MSTR acquisitions, have been cashing in profits since early last year. However, robust capital inflows previously maintained Bitcoin near $100,000 levels, which have now ceased.
MSTR played a crucial role in driving this rise. According to Ju, a 70% market collapse akin to previous cycles is improbable unless Saylor liquidates significant holdings.
The persistent selling pressure means the bottom remains unidentified, yet this bear market is likely to establish widespread horizontal consolidation.”
Saylor, not inclined to sell, had announced a new purchase just 55 minutes before this write-up.
When Michael Saylor released his above statement, his company had disclosed that they made additional purchases earlier on Monday, marking it as an acquisition announcement.
