Macro guru Lyn Alden made a contrarian comment regarding the spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10th. Alden suggested that the spot ETFs, which triggered a decline of over 20% following their approval, will not have any impact on the price of the largest cryptocurrency.
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs Cannot Be a Catalyst for a Bull Market”
Speaking to the Blue Collar Bitcoin YouTube channel, Alden stated that spot Bitcoin ETFs are unlikely to serve as a significant catalyst for a bull market, but they could attract more money inflows that could push BTC to higher levels:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs won’t really affect my view on the direction over the next two years, but they could add more strength upwards compared to the situation where they didn’t exist. For example, I doubt that spot ETFs will be the driver of the next bull market, but I think they could be another entry convenience that could make the bull market better than it would have been without them. Remember, money ironically tends to chase price.
Bitcoin ETFs May Show Their Effect Only After Entering a Bull Market
Alden also added that the next price surge in Bitcoin will likely be triggered by similar catalysts that ignited past bull markets. According to the macro guru, spot Bitcoin ETFs will start to show their effects when BTC reaches its all-time high:
I think the next bull market will probably come from the same directions as the previous ones and will emerge from this bear market. So far, most of the fast money has left Bitcoin, passed into strong hands, people who are dollar-cost averaging, those listening to podcasts like this, and they really don’t plan to sell in the foreseeable future. They are locked into their investments.
Eventually, if you reach a really tight supply situation, then you get better liquidity conditions. I’ve been saying for a while that Bitcoin has been much more correlated with global liquidity metrics than any other asset I follow.
When liquidity increases, it tends to be constructive for the price of Bitcoin, but since we’ve been in a bear market for a while and most of the loosely held supply has moved to stronger hands, only a 5-fold increase will emerge. When it breaks record highs, people and their RIAs (registered investment advisors) will say, ‘Why didn’t we get into Bitcoin? ETFs came out months ago. What are we doing?’ and they will turn to ETFs.
That’s when there might be entries from ETFs that will impact the market, and that’s when I think spot ETFs can contribute to the market. It’s definitely a constructive and positive variable, but not a fundamental bull market catalyst for me.
