Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, has pointed to Bitcoin’s enduring four-year cycle as the driver behind the cryptocurrency’s recent market downturn, even as institutional involvement and spot ETFs expand their presence in the market. SkyBridge Capital is a U.S.-based alternative investment firm focused on hedge funds, digital assets, and other strategies, founded by Scaramucci, a former White House communications director known for his perspectives on crypto markets. In his analysis, Scaramucci referenced the pattern of price swings that have historically defined Bitcoin’s evolution.
Profit-Taking And Institutional Flows Shape Current Cycle
Scaramucci explained during a podcast with Scott Melker that the recent correction followed intense selling pressure at the $100,000 price mark, which many long-term holders treated as an opportunity to realize profits. This wave of selling coincided with notable inflows from institutional players, yet failed to prevent a sharp market pullback. Bitcoin rose to nearly $126,000 at its peak, before slipping to as low as $60,000, resulting in shaken confidence among participants expecting a move to $150,000 in 2025.
He noted that earlier optimism had been buoyed by expectations related to Donald Trump’s digital asset-friendly posture and perceived softening of regulatory headwinds in the United States. Still, he maintained that Bitcoin markets often move contrary to consensus forecasts, citing the sharp recovery of early 2023 after the FTX debacle stoked bearish sentiment. Market behavior since then, Scaramucci argued, underscores cycles that tend to catch participants off guard.
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again,” Scaramucci remarked, reflecting on the 2023 price surge.
Cyclical Structure Persists Despite ETF-Driven Maturation
While Bitcoin’s ecosystem has grown to include U.S. spot exchange-traded funds and heightened institutional participation, Scaramucci contended that these developments have only moderated volatility, not eliminated the underlying cycle. He characterized this structure as self-reinforcing, with market participants aware of and responding to the recurring four-year rhythm.
Recent net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States totaled around $2 billion over the previous four weeks—a sign that institutional interest remains robust even amid choppy markets. This inflow is the longest period of positive ETF momentum recorded in 2026, suggesting continued market engagement from professional investors and asset managers.
Scaramucci suggested that while the increasing size and diversity of the capital base have lessened extreme swings, the cyclical nature remains a defining feature. Activity among traders and investors who recognize and position around the four-year cycle may be reinforcing this phenomenon further.
Bitcoin’s Link With Traditional Markets And Outlook For 2026
Market focus has also shifted to Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equity benchmarks. Last Friday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.3% and breached its 200-day moving average, a key metric used to judge long-term trends. With the Middle East geopolitical tensions now entering a third week, risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin have faced outsized pressure.
Scaramucci noted concerns that if Bitcoin’s positive relationship with equities such as the S&P 500 continues, further significant downside could follow. Some experts propose a potential 50% decline in the value of Bitcoin if this correlation stays intact. Despite these concerns, Scaramucci described the current pattern as typical of a cyclical market phase, asserting his belief in ongoing volatility and sideways movement before an eventual uptrend in the final quarter of 2026.
