Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted outflows for the fourth consecutive week, with October proving to be particularly challenging as total withdrawals approached $100 million since the start of the month.
Institutional Outflows Weigh on SOL
The latest and most substantial sale came from Grayscale, a major digital asset management firm. Grayscale’s Solana Trust, which trades under the GSOL ticker, reported selling $19.16 million in SOL positions, bringing its net assets down to $153.04 million. This reduction marks a significant departure from the relatively minor $787,000 in outflows seen in June, which had been the only previous negative month this year for Solana ETFs.
These pronounced institutional exits have exerted considerable pressure on SOL, coinciding with volatility in broader crypto markets. Solana ETF products have continued to slim down as large investors reallocate funds away from this altcoin, raising concerns about both short-term price stability and investor sentiment.
Analysts have flagged the need for Solana bulls to defend the $100 price level, with technical indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands closely monitored for signs of support or further breakdown.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
According to current technical readings, the lower Bollinger Band sits at $99.21, which could serve as an initial demand zone. The mid-tier Bollinger Band stands at approximately $104.89, representing the next key threshold for buyers to regain control. If Solana can push through this level, the focus will turn towards $110, a price band historically linked to bullish reversals and positive price momentum. This region has previously acted as a springboard for rallies toward the $250 to $260 range.
| Level | Type | Current Value |
|---|---|---|
| Lower Bollinger Band | Support | $99.21 |
| Mid Bollinger Band | Resistance | $104.89 |
| Key Psychological Level | Support | $100.00 |
| Resistance Cluster | Resistance | $110, $125, $135 |
Technical analysts highlight that overtaking the cluster of upper moving averages remains central to any meaningful upward movement. The main uncertainty is whether institutional selling will continue to weigh down attempts at recovery.
Elliott Wave Insights and Downside Risks
MCO Global Research, an international analytics firm, has identified $98.62 as a key swing low for SOL. The company stated that a drop below this level could signal further downside is likely, while a decisive move above the $110 resistance area would weaken the bearish outlook. Their Elliott Wave-based chart analysis suggests that surpassing $109.20 would attract immediate bullish momentum and potentially trigger attempts to breach resistance at $125 and $135.
Until such a breakout occurs, MCO Global Research maintains that a downward Elliott Wave 1-2 pattern is the more probable scenario. A new low below $98.62 would reinforce a bearish case in the near term, potentially drawing more selling pressure before any recovery materializes.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave analysis is a technical method that uses repetitive market cycles, based on wave patterns, to predict price movements. It identifies trends and potential reversal points by analyzing collective investor psychology.
Solana holders and traders will continue to watch institutional flows and key price levels for signals of whether $SOL can stabilize or will face further pressure in the weeks ahead.
Analysts emphasize that holding above $100 is crucial for SOL, while a drop below $98.62 could intensify negative sentiment and lead to further downside.
