Solana (SOL) is trading at $116.87 after a strong 21% rally over the last seven days. Despite this recent upward movement, the cryptocurrency remains 44% below its value from the same period a year ago. To reclaim its record high of $295 from January 2025, Solana would require a further 152% surge.
Fees drop, market cap comparison, and institutional demand
The peak price in January 2025 coincided with a notable increase in speculative trading, driven in part by the launch of the TRUMP token. During that period, network fees soared to $33 million per day. At present, daily network fees on Solana have plummeted to roughly $1 million, marking a 97% decline compared to the earlier peak.
Solana’s circulating supply has expanded since its previous high, with around 587 million SOL currently in circulation. If SOL were to return to $295 per token, the network’s overall market capitalization would climb to approximately $173 billion—well above the earlier peak of roughly $140 billion.
Institutional investment vehicles have emerged as a fresh source of demand. U.S.-based spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) held $1.42 billion in assets as of September 17 after twelve consecutive weeks of inflows. Data from analytics firm SoSoValue shows that these ETFs registered $28.87 million in net inflows on September 22, bringing total cumulative inflows to $1.47 billion and cumulative net assets to $1.77 billion.
Tokenized equities have also contributed to demand on the Solana blockchain, with $465 million worth of such assets being hosted—more than any competing blockchain. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted trading platforms a five-year exemption for the sector on September 17.
Mini dictionary: Tokenized equities, digital representations of real-world stocks or securities on a blockchain, enable 24/7 trading and increased global access by effectively merging traditional finance with decentralized technology.
| Metric | January 2025 Peak | Current (Sept 23, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $295 | $116.87 |
| Market Cap | ~$140 billion | ~$68.6 billion |
| Network Fees (Daily) | $33 million | $1 million |
| ETF Net Inflows | N/A | $1.47 billion |
| Tokenized Equities | N/A | $465 million |
Analyst insights and technical levels
Market analyst SatoshiOwl referenced his recent forecast, describing how SOL moved into the $113–$114 zone before rebounding. He expects the initial price target to be $120, with a further aim of $124 if current momentum continues.
Market analyst SatoshiOwl underscored that Solana briefly dipped to his predicted support zone at $113–$114 before rebounding, adding that $120 and $124 are the next levels to watch if current support holds.
Major resistance is currently identified in the $119 to $121 range. CoinGlass liquidation data points to a buildup of leveraged positions between $116.80 and $117.30, close to the latest price. Should Solana manage a sustained move above $120, analysts foresee potential for a wave of liquidations spiking prices towards the $121 to $123 range. Conversely, a drop below $110 would likely weaken short-term technical strength.
Long-term projections and technical indicators
Crypto Patel, a prominent analyst, noted that Solana has already doubled from an earlier accumulation range of $60 to $67, briefly surpassing $120. He maintains a long-term price projection between $500 and $1,000, while recognizing that a correction toward $50 is possible if momentum stalls.
Crypto Patel emphasized that SOL has delivered over a 100% increase since his recommended entry range and reaffirmed his extended-term projection of $500 to $1,000, though he cautioned about the risk of a medium-term retracement.
The daily Relative Strength Index remains near 70, indicating possible overbought conditions. Analyst Redlion views the current setup as positive as long as buyers defend the $110 to $111 support band. Redlion added that a breakout above $121 could open further gains toward $123, but a decline below $110 could turn sentiment negative.
All major moving averages remain below the spot price. The 20-day exponential moving average sits at $106.76, the 50-day at $97.82, the 100-day at $91.22, and the 200-day at $93.37. The MACD indicator displays a value of 5.49, above its signal line of 4.31, with a positive histogram at 1.19.
Futures trading volume decreased by 19.11% to $9.78 billion, and open interest contracted by 1.41% to $7.13 billion. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade—scheduled for September 28—aims to reduce transaction settlement times to approximately 150 milliseconds. For sustained upward momentum, SOL would need to close above $124 before attempting to challenge resistance in the $149 to $150 area.
