Solana (SOL) climbed to around $104 on Saturday, August 29, after posting an 11% gain over the previous week. The latest rally returned SOL to a key psychological threshold above $100, reviving speculation about a potential major trend shift.
Technical analysis suggests structural shift
A long-term chart posted by analyst Maelius compares the current Solana market structure to the coin’s 2022–2023 bottoming period. In both scenarios, SOL briefly slipped below a major horizontal support level before regaining momentum. The two-week chart highlights that SOL recently dipped under the $80 mark, mirroring the 2022 drop below $20, only to recover and close back above support.
Back in 2022, Solana fell under $20 during a significant downturn, but reclaimed that support in 2023. This move preceded a powerful advance above $200 later that year. The current market formation shows similar traits, with SOL rebounding quickly after a brief breakdown, suggesting that the latest drop below $80 may have acted as a “bear trap.”
Momentum indicators provide further clues. On Maelius’s chart, the relative strength index (RSI) is testing a multi-year descending resistance line—an event reminiscent of the shift near the 2023 bottom. A decisive RSI breakout, combined with sustained price strength above $100, would offer confirmation that the bullish pattern is taking shape.
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AAPLMaelius observes that SOL’s quick rebound above $100 after touching sub-$80 levels could signal the failure of the breakdown and strengthen the case for a long-term support transition.
However, the bullish scenario would likely weaken if SOL falls below $80 once more and establishes lower lows. Under current conditions, $80 now stands out as a primary area of long-term support, while the immediate resistance zone is located between $130 and $165.
More aggressive targets spark debate
A second weekly chart by CryptoCurb outlines an even more optimistic outlook for Solana, suggesting that SOL could ultimately surpass $1,000. This analysis points to similarities between the present correction and the falling trend line prior to Solana’s 2023–2025 surge.
According to CryptoCurb, SOL now approaches a descending resistance line, recalling the technical setup that preceded the rally from $20 to a record above $250 in the prior cycle. However, analysts emphasize that, while history offers clues, a jump to $1,000 would represent an 860% increase from current price levels, requiring several intermediate hurdles to be cleared first.
For confirmation, the chart suggests Solana would first need to hold above the broken downward trend before seeking to reclaim major resistance levels around $150–$200, and ultimately its all-time high near $293. CoinGecko currently identifies Solana’s record peak at $293.31, set in January 2025.
A sustained decline below $80 would cast doubt on this comparison and weaken the bullish scenario. Conversely, if SOL can deliver consistent weekly closes above the downtrend, along with higher highs and higher lows, the argument for a long-term upward trend would gain traction.
The competing charts put focus on Solana’s ability to maintain its recovery above $100 and convert this momentum into a lasting breakout, rather than on setting distant price targets.
| Price level | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| $80 | Support (reclaimed) | Primary long-term support; loss could invalidate bullish case |
| $100 | Current trading above | Psychological and structural threshold |
| $130–$165 | Immediate resistance | Breakout above needed for higher targets |
| $293.31 | All-time high | Major historical resistance, set January 2025 |
| $1,000 | Speculative target | Requires confirmation above several zones |
As Solana maintains its recovery around $100, the focus remains on whether this reclaim can evolve into a sustained upward movement. Key levels at $80 for support and $130–$165 for resistance will be closely watched in the coming weeks.
Mini dictionary: Relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to assess overbought or oversold conditions in a market. An RSI breakout above long-term trend lines may signal a shift in market momentum.
