In the midst of ongoing volatility in cryptocurrency markets, Solana’s native token, SOL, has become a focal point of discussion. Over the past 30 days, SOL has depreciated by approximately 38%, reaching a two-year low of $67 on Friday. Technical indicators and on-chain data suggest the decline isn’t over, with some analysts warning that prices could drop further to $30.
Technical Indicators Flash Warning for Solana
SOL has lost more than 72% of its value since its cycle peak of roughly $295 in January 2025. In this severe pullback, distinct “head and shoulders” patterns have emerged across different time frames. Cryptocurrency analyst, Bitcoinsensus, shares charts indicating that Solana has confirmed this pattern on a macro scale, continuing the downward risks. The target, as measured technically, extends to the $50 level.
Nextiscrypto similarly identifies a classic head and shoulders pattern on fortnightly charts, suggesting a target price of $45. Analyst Shitpoastin highlights a massive head and shoulders structure spanning two years on the monthly chart, offering $30 as a potential bottom. The breaking of the neckline at around $120 on January 30 has accelerated selling pressure, marking a significant technical threshold.
Does the MVRV Indicator Offer a Glimmer of Hope?
Despite weak technical signals, some on-chain metrics provide limited hope to investors. SOL’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) deviation bands show price support around $75, close to their lowest band. These bands reflect the average purchase price of coins, indicating potential dip zones.
Historical data shows SOL often recovers after touching or falling below these lower bands. SOL rallied 87% to $140 three weeks after testing the $75 zone in March 2022, with a similar rally witnessed in December 2020. However, in November 2022, during the FTX crash, the indicator failed, and SOL plummeted to $7, highlighting risks associated with falling below $75 and aligning with technical head and shoulders targets.
Ultimately, Solana presents conflicting signals. Technical analyses indicate ongoing risks, even predicting retreats to the $30–45 range. In contrast, on-chain metrics and ecosystem developments may be perceived as opportunities for long-term investors. Given past sharp downturns, cautious investment approaches and risk management are more crucial than ever for SOL investments.
