Since the last quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency markets have faced a significant downturn, largely driven by a lack of demand pushing price charts into a downward spiral. Altcoins are trading below the lows seen in 2024 and even 2023, despite Bitcoin maintaining a stable position at the $85,000 mark. Each rise in the market is increasingly seen as a selling opportunity, suggesting that cost bases are evolving into strong resistance levels.
Bear Markets in Cryptocurrency
CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, a prominent on-chain analyst, heads one of the largest platforms in this field. Although he occasionally shares his assessments, the recent significant rise in selling at losses prompted a cautionary update from him.
Bitcoin investors have reported net realized losses for the first time since October 2023. Losses have reached 63,000 BTC since December 23. This reflects a shift from a profit realization regime to loss realization within the last 30 days. Since early 2024, the momentum of realized profits has consistently declined, producing lower peaks in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025.
Ki Young Ju shared the above chart to enhance the understanding of the current situation.
What does this indicate? The current pattern closely mirrors the bull-bear transition seen from 2021 to 2022. During that period, realized profits peaked in January 2021, formed lower peaks throughout 2021, and subsequently turned into net losses before the 2022 bear market. Another piece of data supporting the four-year cycle narrative highlights the likelihood of 2026 repeating 2022. Annual net realized profits have sharply contracted, dropping from 4.4 million BTC in October to 2.5 million BTC, resembling early bear market conditions akin to March 2022.
Hence, this could be the primary signal to focus on.
How to Avoid Losses?
How can investors avoid losses in cryptocurrency markets? On-Chain Mind emphasizes that patience is key, particularly when dealing with Bitcoin. The following graph illustrates that shorter trading intervals increase the chances of incurring losses.
- 1 day: ~47% chance of loss
- 1 year: 24% chance
- 3 years: Less than 1% chance
- 5-10 years: Zero
“Bitcoin isn’t dangerous. Thinking short-term is.” – On-Chain Mind
