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The start of October marked a significant period for both U.S. equities and the cryptocurrency market, as the ongoing government shutdown underpinned both sectors. However, as mid-October approached, tensions with China triggered shock sales, highlighting vulnerabilities in the market. The shutdown, initially anticipated to last one to two weeks, now stretches beyond those expectations. Questions surrounding the shutdown’s duration, its reasons for persistency, and its impact on cryptocurrencies warrant closer examination.
Understanding the U.S. Government Shutdown
As countries approach the year’s end, they typically finalize their budget laws for the subsequent year. For instance, Turkey has already initiated discussions in parliament regarding its upcoming year’s budget. Each ministry’s budget undergoes rigorous examination and voting, ensuring public sector activities receive financial approval for the coming year.
The U.S. government shutdown occurs when the federal budget is not enacted in time or when temporary funding is not approved. If Congress fails to allocate funds, federal agencies cannot incur expenses, leading to a halt in non-essential activities. While national security, policing, healthcare, and air traffic control persist, many federal employees face unpaid furloughs and delayed salaries until the shutdown resolves.
Reasons for Prolonged Shutdown
The backdrop of the 2026 midterm elections sees strategic political maneuvers by Trump, unsettling traditional practices. This serves as an opportunity for Democrats eyeing legislative approvals ahead of the elections, leveraging these circumstances to negotiate. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, they struggle to pass laws requiring 60 votes, facing a united Democratic and independent front.
Ongoing for 19 days, this shutdown duration echoes previous instances, with past shutdowns varying significantly in their length due to different political disputes. The current standoff involves multiple contentious issues, including extended healthcare tax subsidies advocated by Democrats, adding layers of complexity to resolutions. Despite attempted compromises concerning defense funding, the shutdown’s conclusion remains elusive.
Several failed votes have entrenchment effects, encouraging a cautious wait-and-watch approach among senators. Yet, a breakthrough seems imperative as political pressures mount, compelling Trump to seek bipartisan support. While temporary funding measures are explored, enduring legislative compromises remain delicate. Analyst predictions of an end by mid-November might mark this as the largest shutdown in history.
Impact on Cryptocurrencies
The sustained shutdown influences cryptocurrencies more than anticipated, particularly as decisions on ETFs await. The SEC, delayed in its operations, could not decide on Solana 
$162 and XRP Coin deadlines. Employment statistics faced similar delays, affecting crucial interest rate projections. ETF approval delays represent substantial disruption, with potential for the November market to recover swiftly under favorable political resolutions and regulatory outcomes.
