The prolonged consolidation in XRP over the past three months and the limited volatility on its monthly chart have ended with a decisive downward break. According to technical analysis based on TradingView data, the Bollinger Bands, which remained narrow through the spring, have now expanded downward. After a steep 16.98 percent drop in June, the lower band of this indicator has become a key reference point for the market.
Technical pressure mounts on the chart
On the monthly chart, the 20-month simple moving average stands at $2.06, serving as the midpoint. The price’s sustained position below this threshold indicates strengthening selling pressure. The analysis notes that since XRP crossed this level from above, sellers have gained control, with the $0.92 region acting as a major attraction point for bearish momentum.
The current technical outlook suggests that, before any talk of reclaiming $2, interest from buyers and high order activity below $1 are set to be tested.
Within this context, the $1.05 to $1.10 range has emerged as the last major support block in the short term. If XRP closes June below the $1 mark, a technical breakdown toward the $0.92 to $0.96 area is poised to gain further strength.
| Indicator | Level |
|---|---|
| 20-month simple moving average | $2.06 |
| Local support block | $1.05 to $1.10 |
| Lower Bollinger Band target range | $0.92 to $0.96 |
First half of the year marked by weakness
The prevailing trend since the start of the year further amplifies this pressure. Following sharp closes in January and February, a limited rebound attempt in April was mostly erased by fresh declines in the spring. On a quarterly basis, observers comment that XRP is navigating one of its weaker periods in recent years.
The first quarter concluded with the asset losing more than a quarter of its value. The ongoing second quarter is also noteworthy for its double-digit losses. This view suggests that the recent technical breakdown is not just a short-term blip but a continuation of the downtrend taking place throughout the year.
Liquidity outflows and ETF effect under scrutiny
The broader analysis argues that the market is witnessing significant liquidity outflows, as regulatory uncertainty in the US Senate around the Clarity Act drives major players to reduce their exposure. The Clarity Act is a proposed law designed to provide clearer authority and regulatory guidelines for digital assets.
Mini glossary: Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator used to measure price volatility and flag potential support and resistance zones. Narrowing of the bands typically signals a squeeze, while widening indicates volatility is increasing and a breakout is underway.
According to the analysis, the primary factor limiting a deeper breakdown in XRP at this stage appears to be the steady flow of capital into spot XRP ETFs.
Spot XRP ETFs have been maintaining net assets in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion. However, analysts caution that if June ends with a close below $1, the market could move to aggressively search for a new bottom in the coming weeks. Historically, June has not been a period that delivers strong upward moves for XRP buyers, reinforcing the sense of caution in the current market.
