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The analysis firm Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) 
$104,031 is approaching a pivotal moment that suggests the end of its previous upward phases. The firm emphasizes that the cost basis of short-term investors is under careful observation.
Cost Basis of Short-Term Investors
Glassnode stated in a post on the social media platform X that they are focusing on the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). The STH cost basis is a metric that tracks the average purchase price of investors holding BTC for less than 155 days.
“The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis model for Bitcoin is crucial for gauging sentiment among new investors. Historically, this model has identified market bottoms during bullish cycles and distinguished between bull and bear markets.” – Glassnode
Market Impact of Price Decline
According to Glassnode’s data, Bitcoin’s price currently stands approximately 7% above the STH cost basis. If the price stabilizes below this level, it may indicate decreasing sentiment among new investors, potentially signaling a turning point in market trends.
Situation of Long-Term Investors
Despite long-term holders (LTH) rapidly offloading their Bitcoin, this trend does not necessarily indicate the end of the bond market. Glassnode noted that when the distribution rate of LTH peaks in past cycles, prices continued to rise.
“Long-Term Holders (LTH) of Bitcoin remain profitable. Historically, when LTHs sustained continuous losses, it often marked the actual end of a cycle. This is not the case currently.” – Glassnode
Overall Market Outlook
Glassnode concludes that nearly all long-term investors are in profitable positions, suggesting that the market is not yet in a state of stagnation. Consequently, the current market situation for Bitcoin continues to be assessed through the lens of short-term investor cost basis and long-term investor distribution rates. Investors can prepare for possible changes in market trends by closely monitoring these indicators.
