According to a new study by Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin’s current market cycle may see its bottom established at significantly higher price levels compared to prior bear markets. The report highlights a probable support range between $62,000 and the so-called realized price of $53,600. Researchers suggest that the restrained nature of speculative activity this cycle has altered the price dynamics in ways that set it apart from the more turbulent lows of previous years.
Contracting declines in the four-year cycle
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, states that Bitcoin’s historical peaks and troughs have consistently followed the four-year cycle pattern. The depth of price drops from peak to trough has narrowed—from 85 percent and 84 percent in the early days, to 77 percent in 2022, and a projected 51 percent in the 2026 cycle. This steady shrinkage marks a maturing market structure.
Thorn also notes that the peak seen in October 2025 diverged sharply from previous cycles: only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators were triggered, while the closely-watched Pi Cycle Top failed to signal for the first time. Moreover, the MVRV ratio—which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value—reached only 2.29, significantly lower than prior cycle highs that ranged from 2.93 to 5.91.
Mini glossary: MVRV is an indicator comparing Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the average on chain acquisition cost. A higher ratio signals price is stretched above cost basis, while a lower one indicates a valuation zone that has often preceded market bottoms.
Thorn concludes that the current cycle has failed to generate classic top signals, suggesting the peak and trough formations may diverge meaningfully from precedent.
Bottom signals have not fully materialized
The report emphasizes that of the 13 technical indicators traditionally associated with market bottoms, only 4 have appeared this cycle so far. Many of the more robust and reliable signals are still absent, making any declarations of a confirmed bottom premature.
Timing analysis also reveals a possible deviation from the historic pattern: previous market bottoms typically occurred 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks. The current downturn has been underway for about 8 months, leading several analysts to conclude the bottoming process is not yet fully complete.
Significance of price ranges and the realized price
Thorn projects that, with the current realized price at $53,600, the primary scenario places a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. In a more aggressive selloff, the floor could fall as low as the $30,000 to $37,000 band. Conversely, a mild correction may see Bitcoin stabilize in a tight corridor around $51,000 to $54,000.
On chain analytics firm CryptoQuant also observes that Bitcoin is now within a valuation zone historically linked with major bear market lows. With BTC recently trading near $59,000, this price is only about 9 percent above the realized price of $53,600. CryptoQuant, recognized for tracking market dynamics through on chain demand and valuation data, underscores the significance of this proximity.
Previous cycles, including the sharp FTX-driven selloff of November 2022, saw most cycle lows forming just at or below the realized price. These episodes suggest Bitcoin could again test the sub $53,600 level, aligning with Galaxy’s forecasted range of $40,000 to $46,000.
Demand data indicates a cautious outlook
On the demand side, the picture appears more subdued. CryptoQuant data shows spot and speculative futures demand jointly fell by 652,000 BTC in a single week—the largest drop since January 2022. The firm also reports its one year demand gauge has moved into negative territory, suggesting there are fewer buyers for BTC today compared to a year ago.
