Bitcoin enters the new week teetering at a critical level, with all eyes on the upcoming US inflation report. While the leading cryptocurrency had found relatively robust support from supply and demand prior to the last two CPI releases, this time weakening institutional buying has raised concerns that the BTC price could retreat to the $70,000 range.
Cleveland Fed inflation forecast raises concerns
The latest “nowcast” from the Cleveland branch of the Federal Reserve projects that annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for April will reach 3.56 percent, up from 3.3 percent in March. On a monthly basis, the Fed expects a 0.45 percent increase for April, compared to March’s 0.9 percent. Core CPI is forecast to grow by 2.56 percent year-on-year and 0.21 percent month-on-month. The official CPI data for April will be released on May 12.
This scenario suggests inflation may not settle into a stable trend. While annual headline inflation appears poised to accelerate, the slowing monthly increases and steady core inflation stand out as notable factors in the current landscape.
Weaker institutional demand pressures Bitcoin
For riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies, a resurgence in inflation could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in the near future. This backdrop creates added pressure on Bitcoin, although it is noteworthy that BTC did not experience major sell-offs following previous hot inflation reports.
Back in March, despite inflation data beating expectations, Bitcoin rallied over 15 percent. At that time, institutional investors not only absorbed all new Bitcoin supply but bought more than 500 percent of what was being mined, strongly supporting the price. Much of this institutional activity centered on Strategy, a firm well known for its Bitcoin acquisitions. However, in the current environment, Strategy has halted its purchases, and its STRC preferred shares are now trading below their $100 par value.
With STRC shares slipping below face value, Strategy faces difficulties in raising new capital via share issuance and, in turn, in acquiring additional Bitcoin.
Technical analysis signals possible correction
From a technical perspective, analysts note that Bitcoin’s daily chart is displaying a classic rising wedge pattern. If this structure breaks down, BTC could see a correction equivalent to the height of the formation, signaling a risk of further decline.
As of Sunday, Bitcoin was approaching the wedge’s upper boundary near $84,000. Analyst Killa emphasized that losing this level could trigger a pullback as far as $70,000, while a contrary scenario of strength could push the pace of gains even higher.
The key level for the market to hold at the weekly open is $78,600. If this breaks, initial support lies in the $74,000 to $75,000 range, as Killa explained.
Conversely, if BTC breaks upward—surpassing both its recent high and the 200-day exponential moving average—analysts identify the $90,000 to $95,000 band as the next major target.
Ahead of these developments, there are signs that large investors have been scaling back risk exposure before the inflation report’s release. Similar defensive moves were observed at points during 2025 as well.
This combination of shifting institutional flows, persistent inflation worries, and looming technical risks is keeping Bitcoin investors on high alert as a new week begins.
