XRP analyst Dark Defender reported that XRP’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a bottom, suggesting an imminent trend reversal if certain price levels hold. The widely followed trader shared a chart on X showing XRP’s price action within an Elliott Wave structure, specifically highlighting a corrective sub-wave inside a larger five-wave formation.
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AAPLThe reversal call
The chart from Dark Defender tracks XRP’s movements against the US Dollar on a weekly scale. The analysis marks a five-wave pattern beginning near $0.43, capturing a correction within wave 5. This correction is broken down into five sub-waves, now positioned at the final point as the RSI dips to 32.60, signaling oversold conditions.
Dark Defender emphasizes the $1.05 area as a crucial technical floor. According to the analysis, holding this level could set the stage for a substantial upward move, completing the five-wave sequence that has developed over several years.
Dark Defender expects “the strongest reversal in history above the $1.05 zone,” with the chart referencing Fibonacci extension targets between $2.90 and $38.30 by 2027.
The chart references Fibonacci extension levels: $2.90 at the 200% extension, $7.46 at 300%, and $38.30 at 427.20%, with wave (5) potentially reaching the upper end of this range. While such upside projections are ambitious, the analyst notes these outcomes are contingent on price stability above $1.05 in the coming weeks.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave — A technical analysis tool used to identify recurring long-term price patterns and investor psychology in financial markets, often involving five-wave and corrective sequences.
Reader reactions split
Followers of Dark Defender’s post expressed a range of opinions on the prospects for XRP. Some, like user JEFF_GO_GET_IT, showed support for bullish scenarios, writing: “.88 and buy a fck ton more,” and expressing willingness to hold even if XRP’s price movement turns volatile.
Others remain highly skeptical. PJ, posting under @PeterWeldon11, criticized technical analysis forecasts, noting, “All you chart guys have been wrong. I’ve yet to see one of you correct.” This sentiment echoed through over 600 views and multiple likes, revealing underlying doubt in the approach.
Commenters like Cryptofanatic420 presented a more balanced view, noting the downtrend aligns with expectations that regulatory clarity could arrive by September or October, but cautioning that if this does not occur, further declines may follow. Meanwhile, Dimitar Ivanov openly rejected the bullish thesis, urging others to consider shorting XRP.
Traders observed the timing of the chart setup matches speculation around upcoming regulatory changes, fueling both optimism and ongoing debate within the community.
Reading the RSI signal
The latest thesis relies heavily on the weekly RSI entering oversold territory. Technical traders often interpret this as a sign that downward momentum could be waning. Dark Defender’s chart highlights the RSI’s yellow moving average flattening just as the final sub-wave completes, reinforcing his argument for a reversal.
For this scenario to unfold, analysts warn that XRP needs to defend the $1.05 critical support level in the coming trading sessions. At present, XRP is consolidating near the support zone identified in the analysis, with market participants split between anticipating a breakout and bracing for further losses. The outcome of the next several weekly closes at or above $1.05 will likely determine which side’s forecast prevails.
| Price Level | Technical Significance |
|---|---|
| $0.43 | Start of five-wave pattern |
| $1.05 | Key support/floor for reversal |
| $2.90 – $38.30 | Target range based on Fibonacci extensions |
Dark Defender is recognized among the crypto community for applying detailed Elliott Wave analysis to XRP. The debate continues as market participants watch closely for decisive price movements near the highlighted support level.
