In 2024, Bitcoin’s rally has taken on a measured and steady pace—unlike the sharp, vertical surges seen in previous market cycles. This current adjustment in the cryptocurrency market suggests that the recent pullback may not be as deep as those of the past. Prominent crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe supports this perspective, drawing on detailed on-chain data to make his case.
Cycle Analysis Through the “Days in Loss” Metric
Charts produced by Alphractal offer a long-term look at Bitcoin investor sentiment, charting the number of days holders have been in loss alongside price action on a logarithmic scale from 2011 through the start of 2026. Color-coded bars illustrate these loss days by intensity, with vivid reds and oranges peaking during severe downturns—particularly in 2015, 2018, and 2022, when prolonged bear phases were most pronounced.
The data reveals that 2018 stands out for its dramatic losses: many investors bought at market peaks and then endured extended periods underwater. In contrast, on the far right of the chart representing 2024 and early 2025, the bars are largely hues of blue and purple, indicating that excessive losses have yet to materialize. Notably absent are the aggressive red shades that would signal widespread pain among newer market participants.
Michaël van de Poppe emphasizes that the 2024 uptrend has not exhibited the vertical, parabolic dynamic of earlier cycles, reducing the risk of setting the stage for a brutal bear market.
Muted Rally Limits Scope for a Harsh Bear Phase
Even if Bitcoin climbs towards $126,000 by October 2025, what’s missing this cycle is the so-called “blowoff top”—the kind of frenetic, unsustainable buying seen in previous booms. Historically, those explosive rallies lured latecomers who would purchase at inflated prices and suffer significant, protracted losses once the market retraced.
This market cycle, however, has featured a much more tempered ascent. As a result, fewer investors are stuck with high-cost holdings, and this is reflected in the smaller “loss day” bars observed. Consequently, the pool of participants who might apply lasting and heavy selling pressure during downtrends appears noticeably smaller, reducing the likelihood of cascading long-term losses across the broader investor base.
On-Chain Signals and Market Outlook
Van de Poppe also notes that a range of on-chain indicators are currently hovering near their historic bottoms—levels which, in the past, often coincided with the late stages of bear markets. The convergence of several metrics near these lows now suggests that both the duration and depth of any ongoing correction may be more limited than in earlier cycles.
Van de Poppe stops short of declaring a definitive market bottom, yet he maintains there is little evidence for the kind of prolonged, destructive bear season experienced in past downturns.
Comparative analysis of the cycles draws attention to these shifting patterns. Where previous cycles saw large swaths of Bitcoin investors shouldering heavy losses over extended periods, this time around the data points to a much smaller segment in distress. As a result, expectations for a drawn-out, sharply negative phase are being re-evaluated. Nevertheless, which direction the market will take in the coming months remains uncertain.
