Crypto analyst and trader known for his Bitcoin (BTC) predictions, Rekt Capital, has warned that history could repeat itself in the largest cryptocurrency, leading to a possible end-of-year decline. The analyst expects a pullback of up to $20,000 in the crypto king.
Anonymous crypto analyst and trader Rekt Capital said on his personal account on social media platform X that if BTC follows a price pattern seen in both 2015 and 2019, before the two block reward halvings, it could drop to $20,000.
The analyst stated, “It happened in 2015, 2019, and maybe it will happen in 2023. There is a tendency for Bitcoin to revisit the bottom of the rising macro peak (blue circle) before the block reward halving.”
Another indicator that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 level is a gap created by transactions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), according to Rekt Capital. He said, “If Bitcoin continues to form higher peaks, can it fill the CME gap around $20,000 in late this year or early 2024? If it does, it could revisit the bottom of the rising macro peak.”
The analyst also mentioned that another indicator of a potential drop in Bitcoin is when it falls below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
When BTC last turned back from the 50-week EMA (purple), it dropped by 20 percent. If history repeats itself and BTC retraces 20 percent from here, the price will fall into the region below $21,000 (green). This is where the daily CME gap is located (orange).
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital emphasized that the expectation of a downward trend in Bitcoin could become invalid if an important price level is broken. He wrote:
The situation here is really simple. If BTC can break the black falling resistance line, it will have a chance to break the $31,000 level. However, until then, there is always more downward movement potential.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to revisit the $31,000 level until the block reward halving expected to occur in April 2024. Rekt Capital also added that he expects a parabolic rally that will push BTC above $65,000 after next year’s block reward halving.