Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, reflecting a slight 0.5% decline over the past 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency stands out for its 6.1% gain over the week. The latest rally picked up steam following Tuesday’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Yet, just two days later, emerging developments on the ground have cast fresh doubts over the ceasefire’s durability.
Geopolitical events unsettle markets
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that three of the ceasefire’s provisions had been violated, though he refrained from providing specifics. Meanwhile, Israeli operations in Lebanon are ongoing. A swift reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz has not materialized, despite Iran’s assurances of “coordinated” passage. Oil tanker traffic remains sluggish, in contrast with earlier hopes for smoother flows.
Brent crude oil prices rose by 2% to nearly $97 a barrel. This comes after a sharp drop in the previous session, when oil experienced its steepest single-day decline in six years—falling over 10%. Following a brief window of optimism in the markets, uncertainty has once again taken center stage. This backdrop is fueling concern about whether the fragile ceasefire can survive the week.
Cryptocurrencies and global finance under pressure
The recent volatility in Bitcoin has echoed across the altcoin market as well. Ether slid by 2.6% to $2,180. Although Ether had led last week’s post-ceasefire surge, it is still up 5.2% on the week. Solana’s SOL token fell 3.1% to $81.96, while XRP dropped 3% to $1.33. Dogecoin dipped 3.4% to $0.091. BNB traded near $600, declining by 2.2% over the day.
In broader markets, the MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares declined by 0.9%. After earlier enthusiasm around the ceasefire, only one in three stocks posted gains while two-thirds registered losses. Futures for the S&P 500 and European markets pointed to a 0.2% dip, suggesting an end to the four-day winning streak in global equities. US Treasury yields retraced recent gains, pressured by concerns that higher oil prices could stoke inflation.
The US Federal Reserve continues to highlight ongoing upward risks to inflation and a slowing labor market. With such conditions, expectations for prolonged high interest rates look increasingly likely. In Japan, meanwhile, wage increases have hit multi-year highs, prompting speculation of additional rate hikes ahead.
A general trend of unsynchronized monetary tightening is becoming more pronounced among leading economies. Added to this, geopolitical instability is clouding the outlook and preventing a clear consensus on the trajectory of interest rates.
Specifically for Bitcoin, the surge from $67,000 to $72,700 after the ceasefire news, and the subsequent consolidation above $70,000, marks the asset’s strongest momentum in six weeks.
Since the end of February, Bitcoin has largely traded within a narrow $65,000 to $73,000 range. At present, the cryptocurrency is testing the upper limits of this band, leaving behind the recent spell of quieter, sideways movement at lower levels.
