Bitcoin, the world’s most closely watched cryptocurrency, is on the brink of $75,000, facing a marked surge in supply. Market experts say the latest rally owes less to speculative hype and more to powerful macroeconomic trends. Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded on US exchanges have been drawing steady inflows all month. Following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflows spiked to around $240 million in a single session.
Supply pressure intensifies to critical levels
Bitcoin’s run from around $71,000, briefly testing the $75,000 mark, comes against a backdrop of on-chain data pointing to significant profit-taking. According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, as the price closes in on $76,800, short-term investors are hitting their break-even points, prompting waves of sell orders from those eager to close profitable trades.
CryptoQuant points out that this level acted as a strong resistance as recently as January. After encountering this barrier, Bitcoin rapidly pulled back to $60,000 at that time, signaling the level’s continued importance for market sentiment.
Despite robust ETF demand and wider macroeconomic forces, market maker Enflux notes that liquidity is being rapidly redistributed among investors. This suggests that capital is cycling quickly, fueling dynamic price action despite net inflows.
Whale activity and large-scale transfers
Recent figures reveal that exchanges have been receiving approximately 11,000 Bitcoin per hour—a pace not seen since last December. In addition, the average transaction size has climbed to 2.25 BTC, marking one of the largest values of the year so far.
CryptoQuant highlights a sharp rise in the proportion of large transfers within total exchange inflows—increasing from 10 percent to over 40 percent in just a few days. This shift signals mounting selling pressure mainly from large investors, often referred to as “whales.”
According to market data, long-term holders have been moving their Bitcoin onto exchanges, while institutional demand, largely channeled through the recent ETF vehicles, has worked to absorb these sales. This transition between major investor groups has become increasingly visible in recent periods.
Ongoing battle for price stability
On one side of the market, demand for Bitcoin ETFs remains firm; on the other, large investors have taken profits as prices climb. This push and pull from opposing directions has not only added volatility but also attempted to balance the current price trend.
Crypto movements from long-term holders to new buyers are clearly evident in exchange flows. This trend is a key factor behind Bitcoin’s ongoing price consolidation between $75,000 and $76,000 in the near term.
Going forward, for Bitcoin to convincingly break above $76,800, it’s crucial that new demand fully absorbs the uptick in selling pressure. Otherwise, CryptoQuant’s analysts warn of a potential correction back to the $71,000 region if the supply glut persists.
