Coinbase Institutional predicts a positive trend for the cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year. This optimistic view is based on improved expectations for economic growth in the US, potential Fed rate cuts, increasing corporate treasury adoption, and a clearer regulatory framework. According to the report by David Duong, Global Research Head, dated June 12, while risks such as curve steepening and mandatory sales pressure from public crypto vehicles are currently manageable, companies’ leveraged Bitcoin (BTC) 
$76,293 investment strategies pose warnings of “systemic risks”.
Corporate Leveraged Bitcoin Strategies
Many public companies are increasingly adding cryptocurrency to their balance sheets. Data from Galaxy Digital suggests that 228 companies collectively hold 820,000 BTC. Around twenty of these companies, including those holding ETH, SOL, or XRP, are adopting the leveraged finance model pioneered by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This movement follows a significant accounting change effective as of December 2024, where the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) permitted companies to report cryptocurrencies at fair value, lifting restrictions under the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to only show impairment.
However, Duong cautions that despite growing adoption, public crypto vehicles that primarily focus on asset accumulation introduce “systemic risks”. Many of these companies raise capital by convertible debt to purchase cryptocurrency, making them susceptible to forced or strategic sales that could alarm investors during market stress. Duong added that the downward pressure from these risks might not mirror past failed crypto projects.
Economic and Regulatory Developments Bolster Optimism
In the US, technical recession concerns have abated after trade disruptions and a slight first-quarter contraction earlier in the year. Duong noted that the Atlanta Fed‘s GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.8% as of June 5, indicating stronger growth momentum. A severe recession is unlikely, with predictions leaning towards a mild recession or sustained expansion.
With global liquidity on the rise and diminishing tariff impacts, asset prices face limited downside risk. This strengthens Coinbase’s optimistic outlook for Bitcoin for the remainder of the year.
The year 2025 is also slated to be a pivotal regulatory shift year in the US. Unlike the previous administration’s “regulation by enforcement” approach, bipartisan support has emerged for stablecoin legislation and efforts to define the cryptocurrency market’s structure. The integration and passage of the GENIUS and STABLE acts before the August recess aim to establish foundational rules for reserves, compliance, and consumer protections. Additionally, the CLARITY Act seeks to clarify the supervisory roles of the SEC and CFTC.
Meanwhile, the SEC is reviewing about 80 ETF applications, including those for multi-asset funds, staking-enabled investment products, and single ETFs for altcoins like Solana 
$86, XRP, Litecoin, and Dogecoin 
$0.095451. Decisions regarding altcoin ETFs are anticipated between July and October.
