The markets are closely monitoring the effects of tariffs, alongside the preliminary economic data releases. The recently announced Michigan indices indicate both consumer confidence and inflation expectations. Because these are preliminary figures and have yet to be confirmed, there is a significant discrepancy from the anticipated numbers. But do these data favor cryptocurrencies?
Cryptocurrencies and US Economic Data
The incoming data does not favor cryptocurrencies. Consumer confidence was expected to reach 62 but came in at 58, down from a previous figure of 61.7. Additionally, the five-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.9% from the previously announced 3.4%. This rise in long-term inflation expectation also works against cryptocurrencies. For a one-year period, the preliminary inflation figures were announced at 3.9%, whereas the expectation was 3.4%.
Consumer confidence decreased by approximately 5% in August, marking its first decline in four months. This deterioration feeds off growing concerns about inflation and anxieties triggered by tariffs. The conditions for purchasing durable goods decreased by 14% due to high prices, reaching a 12-month low. Despite a slight recovery in income expectations, concerns about purchasing power continue to rise. According to the report, consumers are now more worried about worsening inflation and unemployment in the future.
Given all this data, discussing a favorable economic outlook for cryptocurrencies is challenging. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, but questions remain on how it will balance the growing pessimism about inflation.
