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Today is Wednesday, May 3rd and it will be a big day for cryptocurrency investors. Volatility will increase significantly in the markets that are pregnant with important developments. No, the Fed meeting is not the only critical development, there is much more today. Here’s what will happen and what you should pay attention to.
Banking Crisis
Today at 16:30 US stock markets will start a new trading day and everyone’s eyes will be on banking stocks. Shares of 5 banks lost more than 16% and up to 30% at the close of trading on May 2 (yesterday). This is worrying for the Biden administration.
If the same stocks continue to fall today, we will call it “déjà vu”. First the stocks will fall for a few more days and then we will see the fifth, sixth and seventh US banks being auctioned, whose names we will probably hear for the first time. JP Morgan is very big, but not big enough to save all US banks.
If the banking crisis continues, we could see Bitcoin 
$104,806 price rise slightly after the opening at 16:30. But the important thing here will be the Fed’s decision in the evening. In an environment where the banking crisis is deepening, the Fed will perhaps give up on raising interest rates and announce the ceiling.
The statement from the White House yesterday was that interest rate hikes deepened the banking crisis.
Employment Change
Today, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Change data will be released at 15:15. The expectation is 145,000 and the higher-than-expected data is expected that Non-Farm Payrolls may also be high. Strengthening employment supports the vitality in the economy and strengthens the Fed’s hand. The Fed is pushing the limits of the economy for further rate hikes.
This data should come in at or below expectations. It is not expected to cause huge fluctuations in the Bitcoin price.
Service PMI
US Service sector Purchasing Managers’ index will be released today at 16:45. The expectation is 53.7 and the previous reading was 52.6. If the data is above 50, it indicates economic growth in this area. If the figure is below 50 for 3 consecutive months, it emphasizes the economic contraction in the area.
BTC faced a sell-off as the balance sheets came in strong. If the PMI data continues to come in high, this may encourage the Fed and bring new sales in the Bitcoin price. At least if it is close to the previous month’s data, this can be considered positive. Data below that would show that the economy is still shaky and the risk of recession continues. It will weaken the dollar index on the assumption that it will suppress the Fed.
Avalanche Summit
One of the most important developments today will be the Avalanche event. Here we might see new partnerships announced with Google, Amazon or other giant companies. Maybe surprise guests will make these announcements?
Investors may see a rise in AVAX price tomorrow on the back of possible positive news. News from the Avalanche front will be important.
Fed Meeting and Powell
Fed rate decision will be announced at 21:00 in the evening. The expectation is for a 25bp increase. If one or more of the following happens, we will see a rapid rise in cryptocurrencies.
- No rate hike in the decision note.
- Signals that the interest rate ceiling is approaching
- Interest rate ceiling announcement
- Risks of excessive tightening are now more closely monitored
Powell will make important statements 30 minutes after this decision. Even though he had spent March saying that the banking crisis was under control, the FRB sale shows that the problems are not solved. Powell must now play bigger cards. If we see the above 4 items or statements hinting at them, it may be the beginning of a rapid upward period for Bitcoin.
