American politicians are advocating for Deepseek to receive the same treatment as Chinese military companies. Democrats are expressing concern over decreasing tensions with China and have recently proposed legislation aimed at prohibiting chip sales. As the election year approaches, Democrats seemingly desire chaos for legitimate reasons. So, what lies ahead for cryptocurrencies?
Investor Losses Escalate
Bitcoin 
$76,429 remains above 88,000 dollars, and despite the opening of the stock market, a sharp decline is yet to be observed. It appears that there has been a brief pause in the downtrend, aided by the fading of the Japan FUD. However, early celebrations might be premature as most investors are still facing losses, and a prolonged price stagnation in these negative zones could potentially lead to more significant declines. This pattern has been witnessed in the past.
Approximately 24% of the BTC supply is in loss, with 13.5% held by short-term investors and 10.2% by long-term investors. Kyle shared the graph below and commented:
“As prices continue to drop, recent buyers are transforming into long-term investors. This scenario was seen in previous cycles before deeper recession phases.”
BTC staying long at this level shifts the risk from price-focused sales to time-focused capitulation.”
Bitcoin Outlook
The losses are significant, creating a backdrop for larger declines. The good news is that we have yet to see a BTC decline indicating the end of the cycle, which is promising. DaanCrypto predicts movements within the 85,000 to 90,000 dollar range in the short term.
“As the price moves within the 85,000 to 90,000 dollar range, more positions are emerging on both sides. Ultimately, this will result in a larger move from this area. However, with the weekend approaching, I believe the decisive move will take some time.”
Eventually, there will be a breakout. However, certainty about the recovery is still far off. Analyst Rager’s chart below indicates the bearish trend has yet to reverse.
BTC will first need to break the 93,000-dollar mark permanently, followed by closures above 100,000 dollars to signal the end of this nightmare, provided we don’t witness a larger crash initiating bear markets.
The primary concern in the short term that we’ve highlighted for a while now is the bearish flag that broke down, with closures below this level for days. BTC has yet to reclaim support, and only by gaining this zone and exceeding 95,000 dollars can it convince investors the decline has ended in the short term.
