As of the time this article was prepared, the SEC continues to delay decisions on ETFs, with Bitcoin 
$106,738 surpassing $95,000. A mineral deal with Ukraine is on the brink of signing, and the Trump administration plans to officially sign its first trade agreement next week. Meanwhile, China has slightly eased on tariffs, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the necessity of communication. The pressing question remains: will cryptocurrencies experience a significant decline this summer?
Cryptocurrency Predictions for Summer 2025
Historical data suggests that by mid-May, headlines urging to “sell and go on vacation” should emerge. This period, extending till the end of July, typically represents a phase characterized by volume inactivity, grounded in various cycle-related developments. Whether this pattern will repeat this year is uncertain, yet the potential exists.
Conversely, Phoenix stated that those who remain patient could reap significant gains during the summer, sharing the expected route through the graph below.
DaanCrypto highlighted data indicating that the anticipated peak is yet to be witnessed.
“The BTC Two-Year Moving Average Multiplier is another useful “Top and Bottom” signal. Generally, the price tends to reach its peak when it exceeds 2-Year MA * 5.
The price tends to bottom somewhere below the 2-Year MA. Currently, we are in the lower half with the 2-Year MA * 5, progressing toward $290K. This seems a bit optimistic in my view. However, it is interesting to follow such “indicators.” When many provide a specific buy or sell signal, it’s usually time to pay attention.”
If history repeats itself, BTC’s price should peak above $200,000 in this cycle.
2025 Crypto Market Outlook
The deadline related to tariffs expires in July. Chinese President Xi is expected to visit the U.S. in June, and if the current pace continues, official talks may commence by May. Thus, the potential for tariff pressures to persist during the summer seems supported by such narratives.
Yet, as November approaches, decisions concerning altcoin ETFs will become evident. Bitwise’s application for a DOGE ETF has been delayed at the time of writing, with around 70 altcoin ETFs anticipated to see final decisions by year-end. Given the SEC’s crypto-friendly stance and arguments against altcoins being securities, this isn’t impossible. Plus, a delay decision for Frankin’s XRP ETF was also issued.
From the Fed’s perspective, another 100 basis point cut is expected before the year’s end. Hence, the monetary expansion narrative seems supportive of a crypto price rally starting in the third quarter, right before entering the last quarter. While July and beyond may appear the best times for crypto, early realization of such developments could mean the market may price in these factors prematurely, reaching its true peak sooner without surprising.
