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Bitcoin price fluctuations continue as significant data for the US is released. Before the employment data on Friday, today’s figures indicate the Fed is under more pressure. ADP is a leading indicator for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Employment data.
US Data and Crypto
Cryptocurrency markets are volatile due to the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts. Although a 25bp cut is expected for September, extreme cooling signals in employment could force the Fed to do more. Today’s ADP data was announced as 99,000, significantly below expectations. WuBlockchain wrote the following about the latest data:
“The United States announced that ADP added 99,000 jobs in August, the smallest increase since January 2021, with an expectation of 145,000. The previous value was revised from 122,000 to 111,000. Additionally, in August 2024, US employers announced 75,891 layoffs, the highest layoff figure in the last five months and the highest in a single month since 2009 (excluding the 2020 pandemic-induced collapse).”
Unemployment Claims data is also quite important for employment. The previous month’s data was at the 231,000 level. The application figures announced as 227,000 against the expectation of 230,000 balance the data received 15 minutes ago.
However, if tomorrow’s Non-Farm Employment data comes in below the expectation of 165,000, the Fed’s likelihood of making a 50bp cut this month may increase. As you can see above, the probability of a 50bp cut is around 45%. Depending on the change in this rate tomorrow, BTC price volatility may be observed.
