Bitcoin may be approaching a pivotal low point, according to Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management firm VanEck. His assessment draws on the much-discussed four-year cycle model, a framework that tracks price movements in relation to Bitcoin’s predetermined supply limits and its periodic “halving” events—moments when mining rewards are cut in half.
Debate Intensifies Over Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Van Eck, known for guiding traditional investors toward crypto assets, emphasized how Bitcoin’s strict cap of 21 million coins and periodic halving events shape price fluctuations. He highlighted that, historically, the cryptocurrency tends to rally for three consecutive years before seeing major declines in the fourth year. With another cycle now underway, Van Eck suggests the market is in the process of bottoming out as per the expected pattern.
Research Backdrop and Expert Opinions
Recent analysis from research firm Kaiko supports this cyclical framework, indicating that Bitcoin’s latest price actions remain largely in step with historic trends. According to Kaiko, the current trading range of $60,000 to $70,000 mirrors the kinds of corrections observed after previous market peaks—such as the intense downturn from all-time highs around $126,000 during former bull cycles.
Kaiko’s latest report further notes that such corrections typically culminate 12 to 18 months after a halving event, while it may take an additional 6 to 12 months for the market to establish a bottom. This period is often characterized by multiple failed attempts at recovery before stability returns.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, also weighed in, arguing that the four-year cycle prompts investors to offload holdings at certain intervals, creating downward pressure on prices. Hougan maintains that the market is currently navigating through a bottoming formation, consistent with these cycles.
On the other hand, some market specialists believe the four-year rhythm’s influence may be waning. They point to growing significance of global liquidity conditions and institutional capital inflows, suggesting these macroeconomic factors are becoming more central to determining price behavior than traditional cyclical models.
According to blockchain data analytics company CryptoQuant, historical cycles show that market bottoms rarely materialize overnight and typically require patience and time.
If the current cycle echoes previous ones, CryptoQuant projects the following timelines: 777 days from 2012 marks June 4, 2026; 889 days from 2016 sets the date at September 24, 2026; and 925 days from 2020 points to October 30, 2026.
Based on their analysis, CryptoQuant expects the next significant market low for Bitcoin will likely occur between June and December 2026, with the September-to-November window standing out as the most probable period for a bottom to form.
As these technical debates gained traction, Bitcoin showed nascent signs of recovery. The world’s leading cryptocurrency rebounded 3.4% over the past 24 hours to reach $68,217, suggesting a volatile yet closely watched market environment.
