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In the cryptocurrency market, the spotlight is on XRP due to discussions surrounding the potential burning of Ripple 
$2’s escrow-held tokens, possibly reducing the supply by 20%. XRP’s total supply currently stands at approximately 99.9 billion tokens, with nearly 60 billion in circulation and 35 billion held in Ripple’s escrow account. This consideration raises numerous scenarios about the effects of a supply cut on XRP’s value and market dynamics.
XRP Supply Reduction: Potential Scenarios
Analysts suggest that if Ripple decides to burn 20% of the escrow-held tokens, around 19.98 billion tokens, the total supply could decrease from 99.9 billion to approximately 79.9 billion. The number of tokens in circulation would remain unchanged since the burn would occur from the escrow account. This would result in a significant reduction in the ‘future supply’ aspect, potentially triggering market shifts.
In this model, the escrow account would shrink from 35 billion to 15 billion, while circulation stays at 60 billion. Immediate changes in transaction volume might not happen in the short term, but over the long haul, supply pressure could mount. Analysts foresee this type of reduction potentially exerting a “long-term upward pressure” on price; as the supply contracts, if demand remains stable or rises, a price surge could follow.
The Role of Usage and Demand
However, supply is not the only determining factor. The rate of usage, integration with payment systems, stablecoin projects, and the regulatory environment will be crucial in shaping XRP’s future. For instance, XRP has a burn mechanism primarily through transaction fees, where small amounts of XRP are destroyed per transaction.
In the past, there were rumors of mass burning from the escrow account, but no official commitment was made by the company for such large-scale burning. Additionally, XRP differs from similar fixed-supply cryptocurrencies, such as Stellar (XLM), which underwent a significant supply cut in 2019, though XRP has not yet adopted such a move practically.
In essence, the scenarios of burning in the XRP universe create excitement, but real-world conditions limit these projections. A 20% supply cut could theoretically be a strong move, yet increased demand and widespread usage would be the main determinants of success. Burning alone will not automatically drive prices up; factors such as transaction volume, corporate adoption, and regulatory clarity are more critical.
