Capital flows have dramatically shifted between gold and Bitcoin ETFs in the aftermath of renewed conflict in Iran, highlighting a significant realignment in investor sentiment and allocation. As market volatility increased, spot gold exchange-traded funds recorded record withdrawals, while spot Bitcoin ETF inflows sharply accelerated.
Historic Withdrawals And Inflows Redefine ETF Landscape
The leading gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), underwent a historic $3 billion one-day withdrawal on March 6, amounting to 2.7% of its total assets. During the same period, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the top U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, gained approximately 1.5% of its net assets through fresh deposits. Both developments were detailed by JPMorgan’s research team led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. SPDR Gold Shares offers investors exposure to gold without direct physical ownership, and is among the world’s largest commodity funds.
Over a 30-day span ending March 11, Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $906 million in net inflows, reversing the previous month’s $1.9 billion outflow. Holdings for Bitcoin ETFs, measured in BTC, rebounded to a surplus of 12,909 BTC, compared to a deficit of 34,197 BTC in the prior period. This shift erased the year-to-date lead previously held by gold-backed ETFs over their Bitcoin counterparts, underscoring how swiftly investor preferences can change.
Institutional Strategies Shift Toward Bitcoin
JPMorgan’s research observes that from October through early 2026, much of the capital movement had favored gold, especially among retail investors. During that stage, IBIT regularly saw net outflows, while GLD collected substantial inflows. At the same time, hedge funds and institutional traders appeared to reduce their Bitcoin allocations and increase gold exposure, as indicated by rising short positions in IBIT and a drop in GLD’s short interest.
Options market data also presents changing sentiment. The put-to-call ratio for IBIT options overtook GLD’s ratio and has stayed elevated since November—an uncommon dynamic showing greater hedging demand in the Bitcoin ETF market than in gold’s ETF sphere. Despite the prior caution, IBIT still leads in total net deposits for 2024, reportedly holding deposits nearly twice as large as GLD in a comparable timeframe.
Volatility Patterns And Comparative Asset Flows
JPMorgan analysts highlight compressing volatility in Bitcoin’s price action, supported by increased institutional involvement and greater liquidity. This reduction in wild price swings is seen as a possible sign of market maturation for the asset class. Implied volatility on GLD options, on the other hand, has surged faster than that of IBIT, reflecting heightened risk expectations for gold relative to Bitcoin.
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows a bullish trend, where the index recently tested support levels last seen as resistance in 2017 and as support in the 2022-2023 window. He stated:
The Bitcoin-versus-gold relationship is moving higher after confirming a bullish divergence, which may suggest greater potential strength for Bitcoin moving forward.
Meanwhile, Binance Research assessed the environment as delivering “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin, with its price patterns echoing movements in major macro assets like oil and US equities since the Iran crisis began. Although activity in US spot Bitcoin ETF products has picked up, they currently account for only about 9% of global spot Bitcoin trading volume, a fraction of the 30-40% ETF market share seen in US stocks.
Historical market data points to strong post-election performance: Bitcoin, in the three years following US midterm cycles in its trading lifespan, has averaged a 54% gain, a period where the S&P 500 also historically registers double-digit price appreciation. JPMorgan continues to hold a long-term price projection for Bitcoin at $266,000 based on normalized volatility compared to gold.
