Bitcoin experienced a notable correction between Wednesday and Thursday, dropping by 10% to retest the $81,000 level, a figure not seen in the past two months. This decline reflects a marked increase in risk perception within the crypto market, as factors such as significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a sudden drop in gold prices prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. These developments have reignited questions about the strength of the $80,000 level as psychological support.
ETF Outflows and Macro Influences Weigh on Bitcoin
Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the U.S. have seen total outflows of $2.7 billion since January 16. This amount represents approximately 2.3% of the total assets under management for these ETFs. Some market participants suggest that institutional demand has stalled, while others believe the recent 18% gain in gold over three months has temporarily overshadowed Bitcoin’s narrative as a “store of value.” The fact that gold prices pulled back by 13% within a few days indicates that the flight to safety is not limited to the crypto market alone.
Attributing Bitcoin’s decline to a single cause is challenging. However, globally increasing uncertainty is leading investors toward cash and short-term U.S. bonds. A similar trend was observed in the U.S. stock markets last week. Severe fluctuations in the Nasdaq index highlighted that crypto assets are again being evaluated within the same risk basket as tech stocks.
Quantum Computers and Derivatives Markets Fuel Anxiety
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin investors’ anxiety is the potential threat of quantum computers to blockchain security. Coinbase‘s establishment of an independent advisory board to assess these risks and its plans to release public research by 2027 demonstrate the seriousness with which this issue is being addressed. Jefferies removing Bitcoin from its flagship portfolio has further ignited this debate. However, Blockstream co-founder Adam Back argues that fears of a quantum threat are exaggerated, suggesting no substantial threat exists within the next decade.
In the derivatives markets, caution prevails. The delta skew ratio for Bitcoin options rose to 17%, reaching its highest level in a year. This indicates a strong search for protection against downside risks by investors.
Between Thursday and Friday, approximately $860 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated, revealing that many investors were unprepared for the downturn.
Meanwhile, the decline in total open interest in futures over the past three months indicates reduced excessive leverage risk in the market.
