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Discussions around the long-term price cycle of Bitcoin 
$92,177 have reignited with new insights from 10x Research. Their latest analysis suggests that the diminishing returns on the leading cryptocurrency might not solely be due to market maturity. The research firm points out that statistical inferences from Bitcoin’s three previous cycles lack scientific reliability.
Stock-to-Flow Model Losing Ground
According to the report by 10x Research, the Stock-to-Flow model, which failed during the 2021 bull market, is now considered obsolete. The company highlights the model’s significant flaw in focusing only on supply to predict price movements while ignoring demand. Yet, they recall its modified version correctly predicted the bear market’s low in October 2022.
The new analysis reveals that Bitcoin typically experiences an upswing after each block reward halving, but around 400 days later, it enters a correction phase. The chart notes that after reaching previous targets at $12, $505, and $9,074, reaching around $121,000 in the latest cycle seems feasible, while lofty targets like $1.3 million appear challenging.
Is the Cycle Theory Collapsing?
10x Research reminds that during the 2021 bull market, the Stock-to-Flow model projected Bitcoin exceeding $100,000, but it fell short. They argue that similar reasoning applies to contemporary predictions of $1 million price points. A previous analysis from July 2023 forecasted Bitcoin’s peak at $125,000, but the newest assessment suggests a significant shift in understanding cycle dynamics.
Bitcoin is increasingly becoming expensive for individual investors, weakening the reliability of the classic “four-year cycle” theory, as per 10x Research. Their report advocates that the cryptocurrency market should be analyzed based on demand-driven datasets rather than supply-focused models. The analysis notably cautions that “Bitcoin’s past performance does not dictate its future.”
