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Cardano 
$0.483848 (ADA) is currently trading at 0.6420 USD as of October 25, and technical indicators signal a potential drop of at least 20%. This looming decline is further amplified by losses in the ecosystem’s Total Value Locked (TVL) and stagnating transaction volumes, raising concerns among stakeholders. These developments underscore important criteria that ADA investors need to monitor closely.
Technical Outlook: Death Cross Warning and Breakout Fear
ADA’s daily chart reveals a decline from 1.0196 USD in August to 0.6330 USD today. The breach below the critical support level of 0.6858 USD on October 10, followed by a retest, is often interpreted as a signal for a “bear market continuation.” Additionally, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages approaching a crossover point hints at a possible “death cross.” The Supertrend indicator has turned red, and both RSI and PPO exhibit downward trends, increasing the risk of a bearish pennant formation for ADA. This scenario introduces the possibility of a retreat to the intra-year low of 0.5085 USD, a level approximately 20% below the current price.
Conversely, should ADA achieve a breakout above the 200-day EMA at ~0.80 USD, this bearish prediction could be invalidated. Another analysis highlights ADA’s failure to sustain key Fibonacci retracement levels, weakening momentum, and the surge in open interest above 600 million USD, yet lacking sufficient strength for a breakout.
Ecosystem Challenges: Declining TVL and Activity Levels
As technical risks mount, ecosystem indicators also starkly highlight vulnerability within Cardano’s network. According to DeFi analytics platforms, Cardano’s total value locked has decreased by 20% over the last 30 days, now sitting at 291 million USD. Since reaching peak values in 2023, the TVL has suffered a reduction exceeding 40%. Underlying structural issues include the absence of established stablecoins, declining active user numbers, and limited DEX transaction volume.
For instance, the 24-hour trading volume of Cardano-based decentralized exchanges has plummeted to merely 1.53 million USD—an exceedingly low figure given that competitor chains boast multi-billion USD transaction volumes.
Additionally, Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, emphasized the need to close DeFi gaps by exploring Bitcoin 
$94,215 DeFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) sectors, potentially boosting TVL to 10–15 billion USD. However, these ambitious targets remain unfulfilled, reinforcing the impression that the project trails behind its competitors.
In conclusion, the selling pressure on ADA and existing ecosystem challenges feed into each other. With the price structure at a technical breaking point, compounded by ecosystem weaknesses, investors face significant risks. Yet, Cardano’s long-term strategic goals (including Bitcoin DeFi, RWA, and initiatives like Midnight) are not entirely abandoned; but these require time, funding, and user engagement to materialize. In the short term, the 0.5085 USD level should be monitored as a potential target, while a breakout above 0.80 USD could revive optimism. Current data, however, advises caution.
