As the stock market was about to open, Bitcoin’s price fell back below $89,000. The last two 15-minute candlesticks showed rapid selling, reflecting turbulent market conditions. Despite this temporary rise, which had brought a smile to the faces of cryptocurrency investors over the past 12 hours, the sudden sales just before the opening of the stock market were unsettling. Whether the market simulations of 2025, when “the stock market opens, BTC falls,” will continue remains to be seen. Yet, we have a pressing issue at hand named MSTR.
Cryptocurrency Decline
MSTR’s stock is trading near its lowest level in 52 weeks and closed 2025 with a significant decline of approximately 48%. The company’s mNAV slipped to 1.02, and a potential category change by MSCI might push the mNAV below 1, posing a considerable risk. Such a development could prevent the company from borrowing and compel investors to sell off more shares.
In the ETHZilla example, we previously observed how the company had to sell ETH and amass shares due to a decline in mNAV. Strategy, having formed a cash reserve exceeding two billion dollars, plans to use its savings to manage dividends and other payments without issues. However, the resilience of this two billion dollar buffer remains uncertain.
Many cryptocurrency reserve companies are expected to report losses due to the decline in BTC, and the same scenario is likely for large companies investing in ETFs.
MSCI Delisting and Collapse
On January 15, MSCI will decide whether to classify cryptocurrency reserve companies as funds. Statements made throughout the process and MSCI’s meeting motivations imply that a decision against these companies is almost guaranteed. Although investors may not realize it today, MSTR’s mNAV stands at 1.02, suggesting it could drop below 1 before the day ends—an outcome feared in recent weeks.
If it falls below 1 and MSTR shares continue to decline, the MSCI delisting decision may disadvantage cryptocurrency investors even further. Panic selling, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) exits, and the drop in MSTR shares have the potential to create a downward spiral for BTC that instills fear.
Time will reveal what unfolds, but caution is advised. Strategy is set to announce a billion-dollar loss due to the decline in BTC’s price. The decision on January 15 could result in billions of dollars being withdrawn from cryptocurrency reserve company shares. Specifically for MSTR, three billion dollars of passive investment is expected to transition into immediate sales. Brace for volatility, as significant fluctuations are predicted in January.
