Bitcoin‘s recent surge has reignited debate about whether the prolonged bear market is finally ending. Despite a sharp rally and renewed optimism in crypto markets, some analysts argue the downturn may not yet be over.
Fidelity highlights further downside risk
In its latest report, asset management firm Fidelity stated that bitcoin’s current price behavior is consistent with previous four-year market cycles. However, the analysts cautioned that historical cycles are not precise and should not be used as an exact timing tool for market turns.
Bitcoin reached a price near $81,639 after starting its upward momentum in mid-August. This move represented almost 30% growth over the previous month, with prices remaining well above the July lows, when bitcoin traded under $65,000.
The rally followed an announcement by the US Treasury Department to significantly expand government debt repurchases. The policy shift also revived discussions of the so-called debasement trade, as investors watched for broader macroeconomic impacts on digital asset markets.
ETH
SOL
BSC
ROBINHOOD
USDT
AAPLSome market observers believe that the worst could be behind for bitcoin, especially after the asset marked its all-time high of $126,080 in October last year. However, Fidelity’s Vice President of Research, Chris Kuiper, provided a more cautious outlook.
Chris Kuiper explained that, while bitcoin’s strong performance could mean the bear market bottom already took place in July, the price “could also drop again to make another new low in November or later.” He noted that bitcoin cycles “aren’t reliable for timing the market” since their durations have varied historically.
Legislative clarity and structural shifts
During the summer months, bitcoin’s volatility remained muted, with prices consolidating below the $65,000 mark. Following the Treasury announcement in August, trading activity and market sentiment quickly shifted as expectations grew for additional price swings.
Kuiper emphasized that upcoming legal developments could play a decisive role in determining the next direction for bitcoin. He pointed to the crypto Clarity Act, which supporters claim will offer increased regulatory certainty and sustain innovation within the US digital asset sector.
President Donald Trump urged Congress in August to finalize long-delayed legislation focused on crypto market structure. After meeting with leaders from the digital asset industry at the White House, Trump called the legislation “very, very powerful.”
The digital asset ecosystem continues to call for transparent regulatory guidelines covering bitcoin, stablecoins, and other cryptocurrencies. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the crypto bill later this month.
As market watchers track bitcoin’s price action within contracting patterns and monitor key regulatory debates, some investors are diversifying using tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs). Wall Street participants are increasingly leveraging platforms such as 1stepSwap to hold shares of leading US firms, as well as gold and silver, directly in their crypto wallets. By tokenizing RWAs and utilizing smart algorithms to secure the best market prices within seconds, these platforms eliminate the need for traditional brokerage services.
Analysts at Fidelity maintain that monitoring both regulatory progress and volatility trends will be crucial for investors seeking to navigate bitcoin’s next move, as legal and structural changes could play a substantial role in market direction.
