Anonymous crypto analyst DonAlt, warned subscribers on the TechnicalRoundup YouTube channel that a rejection of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could lead to a significant crash. The analyst expects Bitcoin (BTC) to fall by about 37 percent from its current level if ETFs are not greenlit.
DonAlt Outlines Potential Outcomes if Spot Bitcoin ETF is Denied
Closely followed crypto analyst DonAlt said the SEC’s decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF is critical. Summarizing the potential outcomes if the US regulator does not approve the ETF, he stated:
If we are now talking about a rejection from the SEC, I am quite clear about what will happen. I expect it to fall below the consolidation range of $33,000 to $38,000, and even pull back to around $24,000.
Basically, the market structure was not really favorable just above $24,000, and I think the rise from $27,000 to $28,000 was almost entirely due to the ETF.
So if a rejection comes out, we will return to that area. This means that in the worst case, it could drop to $27,000-$28,000.
DonAlt Also Warns of a Potential Decline Even if ETF is Approved
DonAlt also indicated that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US could also have a bearish effect on BTC, saying “An approval, many people will say ‘hey, an approval is a trigger for a massive rally.’ I claim we have priced in most of it, but it may cause some short-term upward effect,” and added:
If an approval comes out from the SEC, I think there will probably be an upward jump. I’m not so sure about that anymore, but it could be a rise that many people will sell into. I think this will also pull us down a bit. If approval comes out, we might drop towards $38,000 and then rise above $40,000.
